Impact study on the economic effects of the war in Ukraine

The Russo-Ukrainian War has been ongoing between Russia and Ukraine since February 2014. In February 2022, the conflict saw a major escalation as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The effects of this war are being felt around the world, disrupting supply chains and resulting in increasing prices and inflation, among other things. Globally Cool conducted three market intelligence studies on the impact of the war on exports from and to Ukraine and Russia.

The studies provide an overview of the direct and indirect effects of the current geopolitical conflict in Ukraine on the export potential of SMEs in CBI’s focus countries, such as Sudan, Egypt, and Benin and the export to these countries from Ukraine and Russia.

A general article addresses the urgency of the studies. This was followed by a statistical analysis that led to a selection of three sectors where impact is most apparent: vegetable oils, coffee, and fresh/processed fruits & vegetables. We then developed tailored studies for each of the three sectors, answering these three questions on the product level:

• How does the war in Ukraine impact sourcing inputs for (product)?
• How does the war in Ukraine impact competition for (product)?
• How does the war in Ukraine affect exports of (product) from developing countries?

Activities

Our activities included the following:

• Carrying out a scenario research, where multiple possible future scenarios are described
• Conducting desk research
• Extensive statistical analysis of trade data, via UN Comtrade
• Conducting interviews with multiple experts and importers
• Sourcing relevant enriching visuals, including YouTube-videos and customised banners
• Report writing
• Processing of feedback.

Results

The result includes:

• A general article that emphasizes the urgency of the studies and that pinpoints the most impacted products and sectors. The article was well received and ended up in the top 5 most-read CBI articles in 2022.
• Three product studies, which are being used by CBI and SMEs in developing countries to inform themselves about the impact of the war in Ukraine on their business. Among other things, the studies educate them about what they can do to reduce the negative impact of the war.