As Nigeria strives to reduce its reliance on oil and diversify its economy, agriculture has emerged as a cornerstone for sustainable growth. Commissioned by the Centre for the Promotion of Imports from developing countries (CBI), this project marked a significant step in identifying high-potential agricultural exports through an innovative, data-driven approach. By co-creating this with Nigerian Business Support Organisations (BSOs), the country is on the verge of transforming its agricultural sector.
Product selection model: laying the foundation
The journey began with the development of a robust product selection model, combining stakeholder collaboration with analytical research. We conducted two virtual preparation sessions with the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria, Nigerian Export Promotion Council, and Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, laying the groundwork for identifying top agricultural products.
During the virtual sessions, key impact indicators such as gender equality, employment creation, export potential, sustainability, and political preferences were defined in collaboration with BSOs. These indicators became the foundation of the selection model, allowing for a structured approach to analysing product potential. Participants were also introduced to valuable resources, including ITC TradeMap and the UN Comtrade, both of which provided comprehensive trade data and insights.
Familiarising with AI deep research
A key innovation of the project was the introduction of AI deep research using ChatGPT. The initial prompt was based on participants’ own ideas, which were then refined with the help of ChatGPT. The prompt was further polished to conduct deep research, focusing on eight success factors. The AI tool was used to help participants navigate through large datasets and conduct detailed research on various agricultural products, refining their understanding of market trends, demand, and growth potential. Additionally, feedback was gathered from the working group, which led to the inclusion of several extra elements, such as a stronger focus on the agricultural sector, the importance of added value, and the need to emphasise the roles of youth alongside women in driving economic growth.
Shortlisting potential products
After the virtual sessions, participants used the knowledge gained to narrow down a tentative shortlist of the top 15 agricultural products for export. A planned on-site workshop with all three BSOs to refine this list further was unfortunately cancelled due to logistical challenges. However, the project reached a major milestone when a dedicated session was held with NEPC’s executive management. During this meeting, the selection model was validated and applied to the shortlisted products, with NEPC confirming a final list of four priority products aligned with Nigeria’s export strategy:
- Sesame seeds
- Ginger
- Cashew nuts
- Cocoa
This focused shortlist reflects NEPC’s preference for “low-hanging-fruit” products, those with immediate potential to deliver impact within budget and timeframe constraints.